Why is Mexico’s judicial reform plan so controversial?

Judicial reforms championed by Mexico’s incumbent president, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, and championed by his future successor, have sparked diplomatic tensions with the United States and unsettled financial markets.

Here are the key points of the proposals, which will be debated in the ruling party-dominated Congress due to meet on Sunday:

– What is the plan? –

Lopez Obrador wants the Supreme Court and other judges and magistrates to be elected by popular vote, arguing that the judiciary now serves the interests of the political and economic elite.

Candidates would be nominated by the executive, legislative and judicial branches of government.

Currently, Supreme Court justices are appointed by the president and ratified by the Senate.

Judges and magistrates are appointed by the Federal Judicial Council, an administrative body.

The proposals, which are supported by President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum, who will take office on October 1, would reduce the number of Supreme Court justices from 11 to nine.

Their mandate would be shortened from 15 to 12 years.

A new body would be formed to oversee judges, in a country where the impunity rate – being able to avoid responsibility for crimes – is 99 percent, according to the non-governmental organization Impunidad Cero.

The system would have similarities to that of Bolivia, where members of the high courts are elected by popular vote.

Some states in the United States use elections to choose judges. In Switzerland, judges are elected by voters at the local level.

– Why the controversy? –

Opposition politicians, judges and civil servants say the reforms would politicize the justice system and compromise the separation of powers between the branches of government.

Margaret Satterthwaite, the United Nations’ special rapporteur on the independence of judges and lawyers, also expressed “deep concerns” about the “broad implications of the plan for judicial independence in Mexico.”

“I urge the authorities to carefully reconsider the proposal, giving due weight to the human rights guarantee of judicial independence,” she wrote on social media platform X.

Human Rights Watch urged lawmakers to reject what it called “dangerous proposals,” saying they would “severely undermine judicial independence and violate international human rights standards.”

The New York-based rights group expressed concern that the reforms would also remove restrictions on the military performing civilian law enforcement.

“Given Mexico’s long history of serious human rights violations and official cover-ups, lawmakers should take steps to strengthen human rights protections, not weaken them,” the statement said.

– What is the diplomatic consequence? –

The US ambassador to Mexico, Ken Salazar, warned that the changes would “threaten” a trade relationship between the neighboring countries, which “is based on investor confidence in Mexico’s legal framework”.

The reforms could pose “a major risk to the functioning of democracy in Mexico,” he told reporters.

In particular, they could “make it easier for cartels and other bad actors to take advantage of politically motivated and inexperienced judges,” Salazar said.

Canada, also a member of the major free trade partnership with the United States and Mexico, said for its part that investors were concerned.

“They want stability, they want a judicial system that works if there are problems,” Canadian ambassador Graeme Clark said.

In response, Lopez Obrador announced a “break” in relations with the US and Canadian embassies, criticizing the ambassadors’ statements as “interventionist”.

– Why are markets nervous? –

Several investment firms have warned that reducing the independence of the judiciary would affect the resolution of conflicts between the government and the private sector.

The changes would “lead to increased uncertainty” about the legal operating environment, British consultancy Capital Economics wrote in a note to clients.

“The politicization of the justice system could raise concerns about whether disputes between businesses and the government will be resolved in an impartial manner,” the statement said.

Since Sheinbaum, a close ally of Lopez Obrador, won a landslide victory in the June 2 election, the Mexican peso has fallen about 16 percent against the dollar.

The decline reflects “concerns about the economic stability of the country… and also the perception of risk that foreign investors are beginning to attribute to Mexico,” Ramse Gutierrez, co-chief investment officer at the asset manager, told AFP Franklin Templeton.